Updated Dec 31, 2022 09:29

Sour Cherry Market in South Africa

Market Overview
In , the South African sour cherry market was finally on the rise to reach $ after four years of decline. In general, consumption posted resilient growth. Sour cherry consumption peaked at $ in 2017; however, from 2018 to , consumption remained at a lower figure.

In value terms, sour cherry production rose to $ in estimated in export price. Overall, the total production indicated noticeable growth from 2012 to : its value increased at an average annual rate of +% over the last decade. The trend pattern, however, indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. Based on figures, production increased by +% against 2019 indices. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2018 with an increase of %. As a result, production reached the peak level of $. From 2019 to , production growth failed to regain momentum.


Consumption
In , consumption of sour cherries was finally on the rise to reach tons for the first time since 2017, thus ending a four-year declining trend. In general, consumption continues to indicate a remarkable increase. Over the period under review, consumption reached the peak volume at tons in 2014; however, from 2015 to , consumption failed to regain momentum.

The revenue of the sour cherry market in South Africa surged to $ in , growing by % against the previous year. This figure reflects the total revenues of producers and importers (excluding logistics costs, retail marketing costs, and retailers' margins, which will be included in the final consumer price). Over the period under review, consumption enjoyed resilient growth. Over the period under review, the market hit record highs at $ in 2017; however, from 2018 to , consumption stood at a somewhat lower figure.


Market Forecast
The sour cherry market is expected to start a downward consumption trend over the next eight years. The performance of the market is forecast to decrease slightly, with an anticipated CAGR of -% for the eight-year period from to , which is projected to depress the market volume to tons by the end of .

In value terms, the market is forecast to contract with an anticipated CAGR of -% for the period from to , which is projected to bring the market value to $ (in nominal prices) by the end of .


Market Structure
In , the share of imports in total consumption accounted for % in value terms and % in physical terms. The share of imports decreased moderately (- percentage point) over the period under review.


Trade Balance
South Africa remains a net exporter of sour cherry; in physical and value terms, exports consistently exceeded imports from 2012 to . In , there was a significant trade surplus of tons, which was equal to $. This tangible trade surplus reflects the fact that the market remains buoyed by domestic production, and the industry is highly incorporated into the global market, which is likely to continue in the medium term.