Rye Market Overview in the USA

In 2019, the U.S. rye market increased by % to $, rising for the second year in a row after two years of decline. In general, the total consumption indicated a remarkable increase from 2007 to 2019: its value increased at an average annual rate of +% over the last twelve years. The trend pattern, however, indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. Based on 2019 figures, consumption increased by +% against 2017 indices. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2008 when the market value increased by % against the previous year. Rye consumption peaked in 2019 and is likely to see steady growth in the near future.

In value terms, rye production totaled $ in 2019. Over the period under review, production showed perceptible growth. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2015 when the production volume increased by % against the previous year. Over the period under review, production reached the peak level at $ in 2016; however, from 2017 to 2019, production failed to regain the momentum.

In 2019, the average rye yield in the U.S. rose slightly to tonnes per ha, increasing by % compared with 2018. The yield figure increased at an average annual rate of +% over the period from 2007 to 2019; however, the trend pattern indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2008 with an increase of % year-to-year. Over the period under review, the average rye yield hit record highs at tonnes per ha in 2016; however, from 2017 to 2019, the yield remained at a lower figure. Despite the increased use of modern agricultural techniques and methods, future yield figures may still be impacted by adverse weather conditions.

In 2019, the harvested area of rye in the U.S. totaled ha, almost unchanged from 2018 figures. Overall, the harvested area continues to indicate a relatively flat trend pattern. The growth pace was the most rapid in 2015 with an increase of % y-o-y. As a result, the harvested area reached the peak level of ha. From 2016 to 2019, the growth of the rye harvested area failed to regain the momentum.

In 2019, consumption of rye increased by % to tonnes, rising for the second year in a row after two years of decline. Over the period under review, the total consumption indicated a measured increase from 2007 to 2019: its volume increased at an average annual rate of +% over the last twelve years. The trend pattern, however, indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. Based on 2019 figures, consumption increased by +% against 2017 indices. The pace of growth was the most pronounced in 2013 with an increase of % y-o-y. Rye consumption peaked in 2019 and is likely to see gradual growth in the immediate term.

The value of the rye market in the U.S. skyrocketed to $ in 2019, with an increase of % against the previous year. This figure reflects the total revenues of producers and importers (excluding logistics costs, retail marketing costs, and retailers' margins, which will be included in the final consumer price). Overall, the total consumption indicated a buoyant expansion from 2007 to 2019: its value increased at an average annual rate of +% over the last twelve years. The trend pattern, however, indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. Based on 2019 figures, consumption increased by +% against 2017 indices. The pace of growth was the most pronounced in 2008 when the market value increased by % against the previous year. Rye consumption peaked in 2019 and is likely to see steady growth in years to come.

Driven by increasing demand for rye in the U.S., the market is expected to continue an upward consumption trend over the next decade. Market performance is forecast to decelerate, expanding with an anticipated CAGR of +% for the period from 2019 to , which is projected to bring the market volume to tonnes by the end of .

Driven by a growing demand, the share of imports in total supply in the U.S. increased significantly over the last twelve years (from % to %).

The U.S. remains a net importer of rye; in physical and value terms, imports consistently exceeded exports from 2007 to 2019. In 2019, there was a significant trade deficit of tonnes, which was equal to $. This tangible trade deficit reflects the fact that the market remains dependent on imports, which is likely to continue in the medium term.