Rye Market Overview in the USA

After three years of decline, the U.S. rye market increased by % to $ in 2019. Overall, consumption recorded a buoyant expansion. The pace of growth appeared the most rapid in 2015 when the market value increased by % year-to-year. As a result, consumption attained the peak level of $. From 2016 to 2019, the growth of the market remained at a lower figure.

In value terms, rye production rose modestly to $ in 2019. In general, production continues to indicate resilient growth. The pace of growth appeared the most rapid in 2015 with an increase of % year-to-year. Over the period under review, production hit record highs at $ in 2016; however, from 2017 to 2019, production stood at a somewhat lower figure.

In 2019, the average rye yield in the U.S. rose modestly to tonnes per ha, picking up by % on the year before. The yield figure increased at an average annual rate of +% over the period from 2007 to 2019; however, the trend pattern indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded in certain years. The pace of growth appeared the most rapid in 2008 with an increase of % against the previous year. The rye yield peaked at tonnes per ha in 2016; however, from 2017 to 2019, the yield stood at a somewhat lower figure. Despite the increased use of modern agricultural techniques and methods, future yield figures may still be impacted by adverse weather conditions.

In 2019, the harvested area of rye in the U.S. reached ha, therefore, remained relatively stable against 2018. Overall, the harvested area continues to indicate a relatively flat trend pattern. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2015 when the harvested area increased by % against the previous year. As a result, the harvested area reached the peak level of ha. From 2016 to 2019, the growth of the rye harvested area remained at a lower figure.

In 2019, after three years of decline, there was significant growth in consumption of rye, when its volume increased by % to tonnes. Over the period under review, the total consumption indicated pronounced growth from 2007 to 2019: its volume increased at an average annual rate of +% over the last twelve years. The trend pattern, however, indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2015 when the consumption volume increased by % y-o-y. As a result, consumption attained the peak volume of tonnes. From 2016 to 2019, the growth of the consumption remained at a somewhat lower figure.

The revenue of the rye market in the U.S. skyrocketed to $ in 2019, increasing by % against the previous year. This figure reflects the total revenues of producers and importers (excluding logistics costs, retail marketing costs, and retailers' margins, which will be included in the final consumer price). Overall, consumption showed a resilient expansion. The growth pace was the most rapid in 2015 when the market value increased by % y-o-y. As a result, consumption attained the peak level of $. From 2016 to 2019, the growth of the market failed to regain the momentum.

Driven by increasing demand for rye in the U.S., the market is expected to continue an upward consumption trend over the next decade. Market performance is forecast to decelerate, expanding with an anticipated CAGR of +% for the period from 2019 to , which is projected to bring the market volume to tonnes by the end of .

In 2019, the share of imports in total consumption accounted for % in value terms and % in physical terms. The share of imports increased moderately ( percentage point) over the period under review.

The U.S. remains a net importer of rye; in physical and value terms, imports consistently exceeded exports from 2007 to 2019. In 2019, there was a significant trade deficit of tonnes, which was equal to $. This tangible trade deficit reflects the fact that the market remains dependent on imports, which is likely to continue in the medium term.