Updated Mar 21, 2023 00:58

Maize Market in Brazil

Market Overview
In , after two years of growth, there was significant decline in the Brazilian maize market, when its value decreased by -% to $. In general, the total consumption indicated notable growth from 2007 to : its value increased at an average annual rate of +% over the last fifteen years. The trend pattern, however, indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. Over the period under review, the market attained the peak level at $ in , and then declined markedly in the following year.

In value terms, maize production stood at $ in estimated in export price. In general, the total production indicated measured growth from 2007 to : its value increased at an average annual rate of +% over the last fifteen years. The trend pattern, however, indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. Based on figures, production decreased by -% against indices. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2017 with an increase of %. Over the period under review, production attained the maximum level at $ in 2012; however, from 2013 to , production stood at a somewhat lower figure.

In , the average maize yield in Brazil rose remarkably to tons per ha, surging by % against the previous year's figure. The yield figure increased at an average annual rate of +% over the period from 2007 to ; however, the trend pattern indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded in certain years. The pace of growth was the most pronounced in 2017 with an increase of %. The maize yield peaked at tons per ha in 2019; however, from to , the yield stood at a somewhat lower figure. Despite the increased use of modern agricultural techniques and methods, future yield figures may still be impacted by adverse weather conditions.

The maize harvested area in Brazil fell slightly to ha in , reducing by -% against the year before. The harvested area increased at an average annual rate of +% over the period from 2007 to ; however, the trend pattern indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded in certain years. The pace of growth appeared the most rapid in 2017 with an increase of %. Over the period under review, the harvested area dedicated to maize production reached the maximum at ha in , and then dropped slightly in the following year.


Consumption
In , after two years of growth, there was significant decline in consumption of maize, when its volume decreased by -% to tons. Over the period under review, the total consumption indicated perceptible growth from 2007 to : its volume increased at an average annual rate of +% over the last fifteen years. The trend pattern, however, indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. Over the period under review, consumption attained the maximum volume at tons in , and then contracted remarkably in the following year.

The value of the maize market in Brazil reduced notably to $ in , falling by -% against the previous year. This figure reflects the total revenues of producers and importers (excluding logistics costs, retail marketing costs, and retailers' margins, which will be included in the final consumer price). In general, the total consumption indicated a temperate increase from 2007 to : its value increased at an average annual rate of +% over the last fifteen-year period. The trend pattern, however, indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. Over the period under review, the market hit record highs at $ in , and then dropped dramatically in the following year.


Market Forecast
Driven by increasing demand for maize in Brazil, the market is expected to continue an upward consumption trend over the next eight years. Market performance is forecast to accelerate, expanding with an anticipated CAGR of +% for the period from to , which is projected to bring the market volume to tons by the end of .

In value terms, the market is forecast to increase with an anticipated CAGR of +% for the period from to , which is projected to bring the market value to $ (in nominal prices) by the end of .


Market Structure
Over the period under review, imports of maize in Brazil were negligibly small compared to the production volumes. Therefore, the share of imports in the total market was practically nonexistent, both in volume and in value terms. This situation has remained constant over the period under review, which means that domestic producers entirely meet the domestic demand for maize.


Trade Balance
Brazil remains a net exporter of maize; in physical and value terms, exports consistently exceeded imports from 2007 to . In , there was a significant trade surplus of tons, which was equal to $. This tangible trade surplus reflects the fact that the market remains buoyed by domestic production, and the industry is highly incorporated into the global market, which is likely to continue in the medium term.