Updated Feb 21, 2023 10:39

Bread and Bakery Market in the United Kingdom

Market Overview
For the fifth consecutive year, the UK bread and bakery market recorded decline in sales value, which decreased by -% to $ in . In general, consumption saw a relatively flat trend pattern. Bread and bakery consumption peaked at $ in 2014; however, from 2015 to , consumption stood at a somewhat lower figure.

In value terms, bread and bakery production fell slightly to $ in estimated in export price. Over the period under review, production recorded a slight setback. The pace of growth appeared the most rapid in 2008 with an increase of %. Bread and bakery production peaked at $ in 2014; however, from 2015 to , production remained at a lower figure.


Consumption
In , the amount of bread and bakery consumed in the UK contracted to tons, falling by -% against the year before. In general, consumption showed a relatively flat trend pattern. Bread and bakery consumption peaked at tons in 2018; however, from 2019 to , consumption remained at a lower figure.

The revenue of the bread and bakery market in the UK declined slightly to $ in , dropping by -% against the previous year. This figure reflects the total revenues of producers and importers (excluding logistics costs, retail marketing costs, and retailers' margins, which will be included in the final consumer price). Overall, consumption showed a relatively flat trend pattern. Bread and bakery consumption peaked at $ in 2014; however, from 2015 to , consumption stood at a somewhat lower figure.


Consumption by Type
Gingerbread, sweet biscuits and waffles ( tons) constituted the product with the largest volume of consumption, accounting for % of total volume. Moreover, gingerbread, sweet biscuits and waffles exceeded the figures recorded for the second-largest type, crispbread, rusks and toasted bread ( tons), threefold.

From 2007 to , the average annual rate of growth in terms of the volume of gingerbread, sweet biscuits and waffles consumptions amounted to -%.

In value terms, gingerbread, sweet biscuits and waffles ($) led the market, alone. The second position in the ranking was held by crispbread, rusks and toasted bread ($).

From 2007 to , the average annual rate of growth in terms of the value of gingerbread, sweet biscuits and waffles markets totaled -%.


Market Forecast
Driven by rising demand for bread and bakery in the UK, the market is expected to start an upward consumption trend over the next eight years. The performance of the market is forecast to increase slightly, with an anticipated CAGR of +% for the period from to , which is projected to bring the market volume to tons by the end of .

In value terms, the market is forecast to increase with an anticipated CAGR of +% for the period from to , which is projected to bring the market value to $ (in nominal prices) by the end of .


Market Structure
In , the share of imports in total consumption accounted for % in value terms and % in physical terms. The share of imports remained relatively constant over the period under review. The growth in the share of the UK imports of in the bread and bakery market structure from % in 2007 to % in is explained by a more substantial reduction in output, compared with a decrease in imports.


Trade Balance
The UK remains a net importer of bread and bakery; in physical and value terms, imports consistently exceeded exports from 2007 to . In , there was a significant trade deficit of tons, which was equal to $. This tangible trade deficit reflects the fact that the market remains dependent on imports, which is likely to continue in the medium term.