Unmanufactured Tobacco Market Overview in Canada

In 2019, after two years of growth, there was significant decline in the Canadian unmanufactured tobacco market, when its value decreased by -% to $. In general, consumption showed a abrupt curtailment. The pace of growth was the most pronounced in 2014 when the market value increased by % against the previous year. Over the period under review, the market reached the maximum level at $ in 2010; however, from 2011 to 2019, consumption failed to regain the momentum.

In value terms, unmanufactured tobacco production shrank to $ in 2019 estimated in export prices. Overall, production recorded a abrupt curtailment. The pace of growth was the most pronounced in 2009 when the production volume increased by % year-to-year. Over the period under review, production hit record highs at $ in 2007; however, from 2008 to 2019, production failed to regain the momentum.

In 2019, the average unmanufactured tobacco yield in Canada was estimated at tonnes per ha, remaining constant against the year before. Over the period under review, the yield continues to indicate a relatively flat trend pattern. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2008 with an increase of % against the previous year. The unmanufactured tobacco yield peaked at tonnes per ha in 2013; afterwards, it flattened through to 2019. Despite the increased use of modern agricultural techniques and methods, future yield figures may still be impacted by adverse weather conditions.

In 2019, the total area harvested in terms of tobacco (unmanufactured) production in Canada declined to ha, waning by -% compared with the previous year. Over the period under review, the harvested area recorded a deep slump. The growth pace was the most rapid in 2015 with a decrease of -% y-o-y. Over the period under review, the harvested area dedicated to unmanufactured tobacco production attained the peak figure at ha in 2007; however, from 2008 to 2019, the harvested area remained at a lower figure.

After two years of growth, consumption of tobacco (unmanufactured) decreased by -% to tonnes in 2019. Over the period under review, consumption recorded a deep setback. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2014 with an increase of % y-o-y. Over the period under review, consumption hit record highs at tonnes in 2010; however, from 2011 to 2019, consumption stood at a somewhat lower figure.

The value of the unmanufactured tobacco market in Canada fell notably to $ in 2019, dropping by -% against the previous year. This figure reflects the total revenues of producers and importers (excluding logistics costs, retail marketing costs, and retailers' margins, which will be included in the final consumer price). In general, consumption continues to indicate a abrupt contraction. The growth pace was the most rapid in 2014 with an increase of % against the previous year. Over the period under review, the market reached the peak level at $ in 2010; however, from 2011 to 2019, consumption failed to regain the momentum.

Depressed by shrinking demand for unmanufactured tobacco in Canada, the market is expected to continue its downward consumption trend over the next decade. The performance of the market is forecast to contract with an anticipated CAGR of -% for the period from 2019 to , which is projected to depress the market volume to tonnes by the end of .

Driven by a growing demand, the share of imports in total supply in Canada increased significantly over the last twelve years (from % to %).

This tangible trade surplus reflects the fact that the market remains buoyed by domestic production, and the industry is highly incorporated into the global market, which is likely to continue in the medium term.