Updated Oct 17, 2022 01:21

Gold Market in India

Market Overview
The Indian gold market was finally on the rise to reach $ in , after three years of decline. Overall, consumption continues to indicate a resilient increase. As a result, consumption attained the peak level and is likely to continue growth in the immediate term.

In value terms, gold production shrank to $ in estimated in export price. In general, production, however, enjoyed strong growth. The pace of growth was the most pronounced in 2014 when the production volume increased by %. Gold production peaked at $ in , and then contracted in the following year.


Consumption
Gold consumption in India dropped to tons in , with a decrease of -% against the previous year. Over the period under review, consumption, however, posted a buoyant increase. As a result, consumption attained the peak volume of tons, and then dropped modestly in the following year.

The value of the gold market in India dropped modestly to $ in , waning by -% against the previous year. This figure reflects the total revenues of producers and importers (excluding logistics costs, retail marketing costs, and retailers' margins, which will be included in the final consumer price). In general, consumption, however, continues to indicate prominent growth. As a result, consumption attained the peak level of $, and then dropped slightly in the following year.


Market Forecast
The gold market is expected to start a downward consumption trend over the next eight years. The performance of the market is forecast to decrease slightly, with an anticipated CAGR of -% for the eight-year period from to , which is projected to depress the market volume to tons by the end of .

In value terms, the market is forecast to contract with an anticipated CAGR of -% for the period from to , which is projected to bring the market value to $ (in nominal prices) by the end of .


Market Structure
Gold market in India consists almost entirely of imported products.


Trade Balance
India remains a net importer of gold; in physical and value terms, imports consistently exceeded exports from 2007 to . In , there was a significant trade deficit of tons, which was equal to $. This tangible trade deficit reflects the fact that the market remains dependent on imports, which is likely to continue in the medium term.