Potato Market Overview in Libya

In 2019, the Libyan potato market increased by % to $, rising for the third consecutive year after three years of decline. Overall, the total consumption indicated measured growth from 2007 to 2019: its value increased at an average annual rate of +% over the last twelve years. The trend pattern, however, indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. Based on 2019 figures, consumption increased by +% against 2016 indices. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2018 with an increase of % year-to-year. Potato consumption peaked in 2019 and is likely to see steady growth in the immediate term.

In value terms, potato production skyrocketed to $ in 2019 estimated in export prices. Over the period under review, production posted a temperate expansion. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2018 with an increase of % year-to-year. Over the period under review, production attained the peak level in 2019 and is expected to retain growth in the immediate term.

The average yield of potatoes in Libya reached tonnes per ha in 2019, remaining stable against the previous year's figure. In general, the yield recorded a relatively flat trend pattern. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2013 when the yield increased by % against the previous year. The potato yield peaked at tonnes per ha in 2014; however, from 2015 to 2019, the yield stood at a somewhat lower figure. Despite the increased use of modern agricultural techniques and methods, future yield figures may still be impacted by adverse weather conditions.

In 2019, the potato harvested area in Libya expanded modestly to ha, growing by % compared with the previous year's figure. The harvested area increased at an average annual rate of +% from 2007 to 2019; however, the trend pattern indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2015 when the harvested area increased by % year-to-year. The potato harvested area peaked at ha in 2012; however, from 2013 to 2019, the harvested area stood at a somewhat lower figure.

In 2019, approx. tonnes of potatoes were consumed in Libya; stabilizing at the previous year. The total consumption volume increased at an average annual rate of +% from 2007 to 2019; however, the trend pattern indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2011 with an increase of % y-o-y. Potato consumption peaked at tonnes in 2012; however, from 2013 to 2019, consumption remained at a lower figure.

The revenue of the potato market in Libya soared to $ in 2019, increasing by % against the previous year. This figure reflects the total revenues of producers and importers (excluding logistics costs, retail marketing costs, and retailers' margins, which will be included in the final consumer price). Overall, the total consumption indicated notable growth from 2007 to 2019: its value increased at an average annual rate of +% over the last twelve years. The trend pattern, however, indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. Based on 2019 figures, consumption increased by +% against 2016 indices. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2018 when the market value increased by % against the previous year. Potato consumption peaked in 2019 and is expected to retain growth in the near future.

Driven by increasing demand for potato in Libya, the market is expected to continue an upward consumption trend over the next decade. Market performance is forecast to decelerate, expanding with an anticipated CAGR of +% for the period from 2019 to , which is projected to bring the market volume to tonnes by the end of .

Over the period under review, the share of imports in terms of total potato consumption in Libya was relatively small in physical terms, fluctuating under an % figure. In value terms the share of imports also stood at a low figure, which means that the Libya potato market is largely supplied by domestic manufacturers.

Libya remains a net importer of potato; in physical and value terms, imports consistently exceeded exports from 2007 to 2019. In 2019, there was a significant trade deficit of tonnes, which was equal to $. This tangible trade deficit reflects the fact that the market remains dependent on imports, which is likely to continue in the medium term.