Potato Market Overview in Libya

In 2019, the Libyan potato market increased by % to $, rising for the third year in a row after three years of decline. In general, the total consumption indicated measured growth from 2007 to 2019: its value increased at an average annual rate of +% over the last twelve years. The trend pattern, however, indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. Based on 2019 figures, consumption increased by +% against 2016 indices. The growth pace was the most rapid in 2018 when the market value increased by % against the previous year. Over the period under review, the market attained the maximum level in 2019 and is likely to see gradual growth in the near future.

In value terms, potato production surged to $ in 2019 estimated in export prices. Overall, production continues to indicate perceptible growth. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2018 with an increase of % against the previous year. Potato production peaked in 2019 and is expected to retain growth in the immediate term.

The average yield of potatoes in Libya declined slightly to tonnes per ha in 2019, approximately mirroring the previous year's figure. In general, the yield, however, showed a relatively flat trend pattern. The pace of growth appeared the most rapid in 2013 when the yield increased by % year-to-year. Over the period under review, the average potato yield hit record highs at tonnes per ha in 2014; however, from 2015 to 2019, the yield stood at a somewhat lower figure. Despite the increased use of modern agricultural techniques and methods, future yield figures may still be impacted by adverse weather conditions.

The potato harvested area in Libya totaled ha in 2019, stabilizing at 2018 figures. The harvested area increased at an average annual rate of +% from 2007 to 2019; however, the trend pattern indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded in certain years. The pace of growth appeared the most rapid in 2011 when the harvested area increased by % against the previous year. The potato harvested area peaked at ha in 2012; however, from 2013 to 2019, the harvested area failed to regain the momentum.

For the third consecutive year, Libya recorded growth in consumption of potatoes, which increased by % to tonnes in 2019. The total consumption volume increased at an average annual rate of +% over the period from 2007 to 2019; however, the trend pattern indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded in certain years. The growth pace was the most rapid in 2011 when the consumption volume increased by % against the previous year. Potato consumption peaked in 2019 and is likely to continue growth in the immediate term.

The value of the potato market in Libya skyrocketed to $ in 2019, rising by % against the previous year. This figure reflects the total revenues of producers and importers (excluding logistics costs, retail marketing costs, and retailers' margins, which will be included in the final consumer price). Overall, the total consumption indicated a moderate expansion from 2007 to 2019: its value increased at an average annual rate of +% over the last twelve-year period. The trend pattern, however, indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. Based on 2019 figures, consumption increased by +% against 2016 indices. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2018 when the market value increased by % year-to-year. Potato consumption peaked in 2019 and is expected to retain growth in the immediate term.

Driven by increasing demand for potato in Libya, the market is expected to continue an upward consumption trend over the next decade. Market performance is forecast to retain its current trend pattern, expanding with an anticipated CAGR of +% for the period from 2019 to , which is projected to bring the market volume to tonnes by the end of .

Over the period under review, the share of imports in terms of total potato consumption in Libya was relatively small in physical terms, fluctuating under an % figure. In value terms the share of imports also stood at a low figure, which means that the Libya potato market is largely supplied by domestic manufacturers.

Libya remains a net importer of potato; in physical and value terms, imports consistently exceeded exports from 2007 to 2019. In 2019, there was a significant trade deficit of tonnes, which was equal to $. This tangible trade deficit reflects the fact that the market remains dependent on imports, which is likely to continue in the medium term.