Updated Jan 1, 2023 18:11

Crude Rapeseed Oil Market in Pakistan

Market Overview
The Pakistani crude rapeseed oil market contracted modestly to $ in , reducing by -% against the previous year. This figure reflects the total revenues of producers and importers (excluding logistics costs, retail marketing costs, and retailers' margins, which will be included in the final consumer price). Over the period under review, the total consumption indicated a slight increase from 2007 to : its value increased at an average annual rate of +% over the last fifteen years. The trend pattern, however, indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. Based on figures, consumption increased by +% against 2018 indices. Over the period under review, the market hit record highs at $ in 2017; however, from 2018 to , consumption failed to regain momentum.

In value terms, crude rapeseed oil production dropped to $ in estimated in export price. Overall, production, however, recorded a pronounced setback. The growth pace was the most rapid in 2017 when the production volume increased by % against the previous year. As a result, production attained the peak level of $. From 2018 to , production growth failed to regain momentum.


Consumption
In , the amount of crude rape, colza or mustard oil consumed in Pakistan totaled tons, stabilizing at the previous year's figure. Overall, the total consumption indicated a pronounced expansion from 2007 to : its volume increased at an average annual rate of +% over the last fifteen years. The trend pattern, however, indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. Based on figures, consumption decreased by -% against indices. Over the period under review, consumption reached the maximum volume at tons in 2016; however, from 2017 to , consumption remained at a lower figure.

The value of the crude rapeseed oil market in Pakistan contracted to $ in , reducing by -% against the previous year. This figure reflects the total revenues of producers and importers (excluding logistics costs, retail marketing costs, and retailers' margins, which will be included in the final consumer price). In general, the total consumption indicated a mild expansion from 2007 to : its value increased at an average annual rate of +% over the last fifteen-year period. The trend pattern, however, indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. Based on figures, consumption increased by +% against 2018 indices. Over the period under review, the market attained the peak level at $ in 2017; however, from 2018 to , consumption failed to regain momentum.


Market Forecast
Driven by increasing demand for crude rapeseed oil in Pakistan, the market is expected to continue an upward consumption trend over the next eight-year period. Market performance is forecast to retain its current trend pattern, expanding with an anticipated CAGR of +% for the period from to , which is projected to bring the market volume to tons by the end of .

In value terms, the market is forecast to increase with an anticipated CAGR of +% for the period from to , which is projected to bring the market value to $ (in nominal prices) by the end of .


Market Structure
Over the period under review, imports of crude rapeseed oil in Pakistan were negligibly small compared to the production volumes. Therefore, the share of imports in the total market was practically nonexistent, both in volume and in value terms. This situation has remained constant over the period under review, which means that domestic producers entirely meet the domestic demand for crude rapeseed oil. In , the share of imports in total consumption accounted for less than % in value terms and less than % in physical terms. The share of imports remained relatively constant over the period under review. In , the share of imports in total consumption accounted for less than % in value terms and less than % in physical terms. The share of imports increased moderately (less than percentage point) over the period under review.


Trade Balance
Pakistan remains a net exporter of crude rapeseed oil; in physical and value terms, exports consistently exceeded imports from 2007 to . In , there was a significant trade surplus of tons, which was equal to $. This tangible trade surplus reflects the fact that the market remains buoyed by domestic production, and the industry is highly incorporated into the global market, which is likely to continue in the medium term.