Updated Jan 16, 2023 17:34

Unmanufactured Tobacco Market in Guatemala

Market Overview
In , after two years of decline, there was significant growth in the Guatemalan unmanufactured tobacco market, when its value increased by % to $. Overall, consumption showed a buoyant expansion. Over the period under review, the market reached the peak level in and is likely to continue growth in the immediate term.

In value terms, unmanufactured tobacco production reduced slightly to $ in estimated in export price. In general, the total production indicated a strong expansion from 2007 to : its value increased at an average annual rate of +% over the last fifteen years. The trend pattern, however, indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. Based on figures, production increased by +% against indices. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2009 when the production volume increased by % against the previous year. Unmanufactured tobacco production peaked at $ in 2017; however, from 2018 to , production stood at a somewhat lower figure.

The average yield of tobacco (unmanufactured) in Guatemala reduced modestly to tons per ha in , almost unchanged from figures. Overall, the yield continues to indicate a relatively flat trend pattern. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2009 with an increase of %. As a result, the yield reached the peak level of tons per ha. From 2010 to , the growth of the average unmanufactured tobacco yield failed to regain momentum. Despite the increased use of modern agricultural techniques and methods, future yield figures may still be impacted by adverse weather conditions.

In , the harvested area of tobacco (unmanufactured) in Guatemala was estimated at ha, standing approx. at . The harvested area increased at an average annual rate of +% over the period from 2007 to ; however, the trend pattern indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded in certain years. The pace of growth was the most pronounced in 2009 when the harvested area increased by % against the previous year. Over the period under review, the harvested area dedicated to unmanufactured tobacco production attained the maximum at ha in ; however, from to , the harvested area failed to regain momentum.


Consumption
In , consumption of tobacco (unmanufactured) in Guatemala soared to tons, increasing by % compared with . Over the period under review, the total consumption indicated a moderate expansion from 2007 to : its volume increased at an average annual rate of +% over the last fifteen-year period. The trend pattern, however, indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. Over the period under review, consumption attained the peak volume in and is likely to see steady growth in the near future.

The value of the unmanufactured tobacco market in Guatemala skyrocketed to $ in , jumping by % against the previous year. This figure reflects the total revenues of producers and importers (excluding logistics costs, retail marketing costs, and retailers' margins, which will be included in the final consumer price). In general, consumption showed a prominent expansion. Over the period under review, the market reached the peak level in and is likely to see gradual growth in the immediate term.


Market Forecast
Driven by increasing demand for unmanufactured tobacco in Guatemala, the market is expected to continue an upward consumption trend over the next eight years. Market performance is forecast to decelerate, expanding with an anticipated CAGR of +% for the period from to , which is projected to bring the market volume to tons by the end of .

In value terms, the market is forecast to increase with an anticipated CAGR of +% for the period from to , which is projected to bring the market value to $ (in nominal prices) by the end of .


Market Structure
Over the period under review, the share of imports in terms of total unmanufactured tobacco consumption in Guatemala was relatively small in physical terms, fluctuating under an % figure. In value terms the share of imports also stood at a low figure, which means that the Guatemala unmanufactured tobacco market is largely supplied by domestic manufacturers. In , the share of imports in total consumption accounted for % in value terms and % in physical terms. The share of imports decreased moderately (- percentage point) over the period under review.


Trade Balance
Guatemala remains a net exporter of unmanufactured tobacco; in physical and value terms, exports consistently exceeded imports from 2007 to . In , there was a significant trade surplus of tons, which was equal to $. This tangible trade surplus reflects the fact that the market remains buoyed by domestic production, and the industry is highly incorporated into the global market, which is likely to continue in the medium term.