Updated Sep 30, 2022 20:32

Caustic Soda Market in China

Market Overview
The Chinese caustic soda market was finally on the rise to reach $ in , after two years of decline. In general, consumption, however, recorded prominent growth. Caustic soda consumption peaked at $ in 2018; however, from 2019 to , consumption failed to regain momentum.

In value terms, caustic soda production rose to $ in estimated in export price. In general, production, however, enjoyed a remarkable increase. The growth pace was the most rapid in 2011 when the production volume increased by %. Over the period under review, production hit record highs at $ in 2018; however, from 2019 to , production remained at a lower figure.


Consumption
In , consumption of caustic soda decreased by -% to tons for the first time since 2015, thus ending a five-year rising trend. Over the period under review, the total consumption indicated buoyant growth from 2007 to : its volume increased at an average annual rate of +% over the last fourteen years. The trend pattern, however, indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. Based on figures, consumption increased by +% against 2007 indices. Caustic soda consumption peaked at tons in , and then dropped modestly in the following year.

The value of the caustic soda market in China was estimated at $ in , almost unchanged from the previous year. This figure reflects the total revenues of producers and importers (excluding logistics costs, retail marketing costs, and retailers' margins, which will be included in the final consumer price). Overall, consumption, however, enjoyed a resilient increase. Over the period under review, the market hit record highs at $ in 2018; however, from 2019 to , consumption failed to regain momentum.


Market Forecast
Driven by increasing demand for caustic soda in China, the market is expected to continue an upward consumption trend over the next decade. Market performance is forecast to decelerate, expanding with an anticipated CAGR of +% for the period from to , which is projected to bring the market volume to tons by the end of .

In value terms, the market is forecast to increase with an anticipated CAGR of +% for the period from to , which is projected to bring the market value to $ (in nominal prices) by the end of .


Market Structure
Over the period under review, imports of caustic soda in China were negligibly small compared to the production volumes. Therefore, the share of imports in the total market was practically nonexistent, both in volume and in value terms. This situation has remained constant over the period under review, which means that domestic producers entirely meet the domestic demand for caustic soda. In , the share of imports in total consumption accounted for % in value terms and % in physical terms. The share of imports remained relatively constant over the period under review. In , the share of imports in total consumption accounted for % in value terms and % in physical terms. The share of imports decreased moderately (less than percentage point) over the period under review.


Trade Balance
China remains a net exporter of caustic soda; in physical and value terms, exports consistently exceeded imports from 2007 to . In , there was a significant trade surplus of tons, which was equal to $. This tangible trade surplus reflects the fact that the market remains buoyed by domestic production, and the industry is highly incorporated into the global market, which is likely to continue in the medium term.