Updated Nov 9, 2022 07:00

Tobacco Market in the United Kingdom

Market Overview
The UK tobacco market shrank modestly to $ in , remaining constant against the previous year. This figure reflects the total revenues of producers and importers (excluding logistics costs, retail marketing costs, and retailers' margins, which will be included in the final consumer price). Over the period under review, the total consumption indicated notable growth from 2007 to : its value increased at an average annual rate of +% over the last fourteen years. The trend pattern, however, indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. Based on figures, consumption increased by +% against 2019 indices. As a result, consumption reached the peak level of $. From 2018 to , the growth of the market remained at a lower figure.

In value terms, tobacco production shrank to $ in estimated in export price. In general, production, however, recorded a remarkable increase. The growth pace was the most rapid in 2017 with an increase of % against the previous year. As a result, production reached the peak level of $. From 2018 to , production growth remained at a somewhat lower figure.


Consumption
In , consumption of tobacco (smoking tobacco, chewing tobacco, snuff) increased by % to tons, rising for the third year in a row after four years of decline. The total consumption volume increased at an average annual rate of +% over the period from 2007 to ; however, the trend pattern indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded in certain years. Tobacco consumption peaked at tons in 2015; however, from 2016 to , consumption remained at a lower figure.

The size of the tobacco market in the UK reached $ in , rising by % against the previous year. This figure reflects the total revenues of producers and importers (excluding logistics costs, retail marketing costs, and retailers' margins, which will be included in the final consumer price). Over the period under review, the total consumption indicated a moderate expansion from 2007 to : its value increased at an average annual rate of +% over the last fifteen-year period. The trend pattern, however, indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. Based on figures, consumption increased by +% against 2019 indices. As a result, consumption reached the peak level of $. From 2018 to , the growth of the market failed to regain momentum.


Market Forecast
Driven by increasing demand for tobacco (smoking tobacco, chewing tobacco, snuff) in the UK, the market is expected to continue an upward consumption trend over the next eight-year period. Market performance is forecast to retain its current trend pattern, expanding with an anticipated CAGR of +% for the period from to , which is projected to bring the market volume to tons by the end of .

In value terms, the market is forecast to increase with an anticipated CAGR of +% for the period from to , which is projected to bring the market value to $ (in nominal prices) by the end of .


Market Structure
Over the period under review, the share of imports in terms of total tobacco consumption in the UK was relatively small in physical terms, fluctuating under an % figure. In value terms the share of imports also stood at a low figure, which means that the the UK tobacco market is largely supplied by domestic manufacturers. In , the share of imports in total consumption accounted for % in value terms and % in physical terms. The share of imports decreased moderately (- percentage point) over the period under review.


Trade Balance
The UK remains a net importer of tobacco; in physical and value terms, imports consistently exceeded exports from 2007 to . In , there was a significant trade deficit of tons, which was equal to $.