Updated Feb 6, 2023 23:07

Market for Coal Other Than Lingite in Brazil

Market Overview
In , the Brazilian coal other than lingite market increased by % to $, rising for the second year in a row after two years of decline. Overall, consumption posted a prominent increase. As a result, consumption reached the peak level and is likely to continue growth in the immediate term.

In value terms, coal other than lingite production fell slightly to $ in estimated in export price. Overall, production continues to indicate a slight curtailment. The pace of growth was the most pronounced in 2017 with an increase of % against the previous year. Coal other than lingite production peaked at $ in 2008; however, from 2009 to , production failed to regain momentum.


Consumption
In , consumption of coal other than lingite increased by % to tons, rising for the second year in a row after two years of decline. In general, consumption recorded strong growth. As a result, consumption reached the peak volume and is likely to continue growth in the immediate term.

The size of the coal other than lingite market in Brazil surged to $ in , rising by % against the previous year. This figure reflects the total revenues of producers and importers (excluding logistics costs, retail marketing costs, and retailers' margins, which will be included in the final consumer price). Overall, consumption showed a buoyant expansion. As a result, consumption reached the peak level and is likely to continue growth in the immediate term.


Market Forecast
The coal other than lingite market is expected to start a downward consumption trend over the next eight years. The performance of the market is forecast to decrease slightly, with an anticipated CAGR of -% for the eight-year period from to , which is projected to depress the market volume to tons by the end of .

In value terms, the market is forecast to contract with an anticipated CAGR of -% for the period from to , which is projected to bring the market value to $ (in nominal prices) by the end of .


Market Structure
Driven by a growing demand, the share of imports in total supply in Brazil increased significantly over the last fifteen-year period (from % to %). Coal other than lingite market in Brazil remained dependent on supplies from foreign countries. In , the share of imports in total consumption was % in value terms and % in physical terms.


Trade Balance
Brazil remains a net importer of coal other than lingite; in physical and value terms, imports consistently exceeded exports from 2007 to . In , there was a significant trade deficit of tons, which was equal to $. This tangible trade deficit reflects the fact that the market remains dependent on imports, which is likely to continue in the medium term.